December 15, 2020
In November 2020 we asked 106 analysts and managers from five investment firms within BNY Mellon Investment Management for their thoughts about the year ahead. Here, we drill down to the views of those whose focus is on equities.
For equity specialists within BNY Mellon Investment Management, the year ahead looks bright. We asked them for their 12-month outlook, and a clear majority – 80% – said they are either ‘selectively bullish’ or ‘bullish’ about 2021. In contrast, just under 5% said they were ‘selectively bearish’ on markets; and only 15% said they were neutral.
A majority (75%) said they expect volatility to be lower in 2021 than in 2020 – which is perhaps unsurprising given the global impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on markets over the past year.
Clear views also came through when we asked for opinions on specific sectors. Here, a majority (30%) flagged tech stocks as being overvalued. On the flipside of the coin, the value of value seems to be coming through as part of a wider shift in market sentiment, with well over half of our specialists saying stocks in this category are undervalued right now.
Experts from across the five investment firms also highlighted emerging markets as attractive.
In their own words…
As part of the survey we asked respondents to provide their own views about how stock market returns will pan out in 2021. Here are some of those responses:
- “There will be delayed negative economic effects from the pandemic and therefore selectivity is important.”
- “Sectors like tech, and ecommerce should broadly continue to do well following a strong 2020. Some cyclicals that were punished through 2020 will likely perform well as the world recovers from Covid-19. That being said, I think the potential for the US to continue failing to pass another round of stimulus remains a significant threat. High rates of small-medium-enterprise closures, evictions, and strained state/local finances could have direct and indirect consequences for businesses across a number of sectors.”
- “Stock market returns are the aggregate of the returns of the businesses that compose the indices. I am selectively bullish on certain, specific businesses that have structural tailwinds and are able to grow their revenues and cashflows.”
- “I believe value-oriented equities have strong upside potential as earnings expand from depressed levels in 2020. In the large cap growth/tech space, earnings did not correct during COVID, so y-o-y comparisons will be more difficult in '21, potentially setting up for less compelling performance trends in that part of the market.”
- “The business models of the companies which survive the pandemic will be proved to be resilient. A slow but robust growth could be expected from these companies along with the economic recovery.”
Word cloud: Where will investors find the best opportunities for income in 2021?
- “Covid-19 is a major uncertainty in a way that most uncertainties are not. Even so, the bigger risk is inappropriate, unduly restrictive government policy which relies on QE to paper over the cracks. Markets are at relatively high valuations, notwithstanding that the cost of capital remains at record lows due to zero interest-rate policies around the world. Thus, there should be a reasonable set of selective opportunities.”
- “I feel cautiously optimistic – there will be lapping weak comparison periods and likely be a more benign White House administration regarding trade wars/foreign policy... but tempered by potential Brexit reverberations.”
- “The vaccine is coming sooner than previously thought possible and stimulus is helping markets. Fiscal policy is likely to be supportive too in tackling climate change and improving welfare system through Universal Basic Income.”
The multi-asset specialist view
In common with their equity-focused peers, our multi-asset specialists appear sanguine about the prospects for the year ahead. Nearly 75% said they were either bullish or selectively bullish about markets going into the New Year, with less than 3% saying they were feeling bearish. Equities (65%) and emerging markets (32%) were their favored choice for positive returns in the coming year.
Within the alternatives space, there was almost equal billing for infrastructure equities (28%), renewable energy (23%) and ‘other’ commodities (ex-gold) as their favored asset class.
All investments involve some level of risk, including loss of principal. Certain investments have specific or unique risks. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment.
Recent market risks include pandemic risks related to COVID-19. The effects of COVID-19 have contributed to increased volatility in global markets and will likely affect certain countries, companies, industries and market sectors more dramatically than others.
Views expressed are those of the author stated and do not reflect views of other managers or the firm overall. Views are current as of the date of this publication and subject to change. This information contains projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations, and is only current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events or expectations will be achieved, and actual results may be significantly different from that shown here. The information is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Forecasts, estimates and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Please consult a legal, tax or financial professional in order to determine whether an investment product or service is appropriate for a particular situation.
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