The economic argument behind “green” investing

April 30, 2019

The risks associated with climate change are proliferating – with the number of extreme weather events climbing steadily over the past four decades. In 1980, for instance, there were almost 250 recorded extreme weather events. By 2018 that number had risen to 848.

Although the White House under President Trump has been skeptical about climate change, in the U.S., policy is largely driven at the regional level and several states have actually sought to accelerate their clean energy targets. Even so, economics are very much in the driving seat when it comes to determining the pace of adoption of renewables.

While the cost per megawatt-hour (MW) of electricity derived from coal or gas is expected to flat-line in the coming three decades, onshore wind and utility-scale photovoltaics (solar) are expected to become far more cost effective. Here, costs are forecast to drop from around US$60 per MW-hour at present to around US$20 per MW-hour by 2050, which would make them significantly cheaper than established fossil fuel generation methods.

For investors, as ever, the challenge will be to find the right way to access the opportunities formed from this change in the cost of renewables. With this changing dynamic, investment in renewables becomes less about whether you believe in climate change and more about the economic efficiencies that are predicted to be achieved in the sector, in our opinion.

Paul Flood, portfolio manager at Newton, a BNY Mellon company

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Definitions:
Geophysical events (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
Meteorological events (storm)
Hydrological events (flood, mass movement)
Climatological events (extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)

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Views expressed are those of the advisor stated and do not reflect views of other managers or the firm overall. Views are current as of the date of this publication and subject to change. This information contains projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations, and is only current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events or expectations will be achieved, and actual results may be significantly different from that shown here. The information is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Forecasts, estimates and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Please consult a legal, tax or investment advisor in order to determine whether an investment product or service is appropriate for a particular situation. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. BNY Mellon Investment Adviser, Inc., Newton and BNY Mellon Securities Corporation are subsidiaries of BNY Mellon.

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