The Federal Reserve is operating at a loss. Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart reviews the arithmetic of inflation ahead of the November 1-2 FOMC meeting.

Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart provides his insights on the inflation outlook for major economies.

Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart reviews the July 26-27 FOMC meeting and the dangers of disinflation optimism.

Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart provides his outlook on what to expect from the July 26-27 FOMC meeting.

Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart reviews the bizarre events, including a leak to the Wall Street Journal, ahead of the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart discusses impending recession risks following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) rate hike in its effort to pursue price stability.

Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart outlines why the Federal Open Market Committee might diverge from gradualism later this year.

Investors should draw as many lessons as possible from the recent collapse of the stablecoin UST and its crypto token twin LUNA. Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart offers three.

Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart outlines how the dominoes will likely begin to fall at the May FOMC meeting.

Chief Economist & Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart provides detailed perspective on the probability of a US recession through four popular predictors. Reinhart’s macro outlook also outlines risks surrounding key trading partners and concludes with views on what method of asset allocation may weather an impending storm.

As inflation and geopolitical tensions rise, so too does the specter of recession. Chief Economist and Global Strategist Vincent Reinhart briefly reviews the catalysts for a US and European recession in 2022 as well as our outlook on China-US relations.

Chief Investment Officer John Tobin and Chief Economist & Macro Strategist Vincent Reinhart unpack the first rate hike in over three years.

The Federal Reserve faces increasingly difficult choices amid large-scale inflation and shocks to both global aggregate supply and demand.

As Russian President Vladimir Putin attempts to redraw Europe, central bankers have a responsibility to act in both war and peace.

In the spirit of holiday helpfulness, our latest Fed Thoughts fills in the space Chair Powell left out of his December remarks to the press: Where we are, what the Fed decided at its latest meeting, and what may go wrong.

Will President Biden follow the script set in autumn 1979 or risk rocking the market boat? We explore precedents and presidents in the highly anticipated Fed chair appointment.

The latest Federal Open Market Committee was short on surprises with the announcement of the gradual slowing of asset purchases. We turn toward the current decision of note—personnel.

Our forecast is that the Fed will begin to trim back asset purchases this November or December in order to clear the deck of unconventional policy by mid-2022. This will allow Fed officials to begin hiking rates in early 2023, with the option of beginning a bit earlier if necessary. Vincent Reinhart, Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, shares his thoughts.

What is the likelihood that the Congress will fail to raise the debt ceiling? We review causes for worry and likely outcomes in the latest dramatic and costly standoff on Capitol Hill. Vincent Reinhart, Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, shares his thoughts.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is center stage. Fed Chair Jay Powell has been pressed to the wall as a succession of his colleagues up the ante on an early exit. Vincent Reinhart, Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, shares his thoughts.