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Welcome to the latest edition of Vantage Point. The past three months have seen a dramatic selloff of risky assets, driven largely by a recalibration of expectations of where global interest rates might be headed. Overall, the situation is not unlike the ‘overheating’ scenarios we described in several Vantage Points last year.
Find out our commentary on the inflation print, market reaction, and implications for Fed policy from the week of September 16, 2022.
Describes how global policy divergence and other macro-drivers of large-scale Yen depreciation are still intact, but these are now starting to discernably raise inflation pressure in Japan.
The Taiwan related tension may not go away quickly with the upcoming quinquennial transition in China and US mid-term elections. We cover more in this note.
This note details our latest analysis of prolonged food price shocks and their impact on macro and investments.
The history of bear markets makes for gloomy reading. However, this brief note focuses on what we might expect once the -20% threshold has been crossed. How has the market (S&P 500) performed after entering a bear market?
The state of global supply chains are widely seen as heavily influenced by developments in China. While it is true that China accounts for a large (nearly 30%) share of global manufacturing and shipping, we believe that it is far from obvious that it “causes” U.S. inflation. We cover some highlights and metrics in this note.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the Fed Funds rate by 75 basis points (bps) on June 15th, to a range of 1.5-1.75%, the largest hike since 1994. The below highlights the takeaways from Chair Powell’s press conference and the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
In this third note of three, we review the arguments behind these opposing views in the previous two, in the hope to provide some clarity for investors as they attempt to navigate markets in the challenging times ahead.
Chinese annual growth is set to soften further - with growth to contract in Q2'22 and slow recovery for the year. We elaborate within this note.
In the first note in a series of three on QT we argued that QT will most likely contribute to a flattening of the yield curve. Instead, many financial market participants tend to associate Quantitative Tightening (QT) with a steepening of the yield curve.
We have written extensively on our expectations for future rate hikes and the peak in US rates. In this paper, the first in a series of three on Quantitative Tightening (QT), we summarize our thinking on QT and its implications for markets.
During the first quarter, the main US benchmarks for equity and bonds both declined. During the past several decades, concurrent declines in stocks and bonds are relatively infrequent. This short note puts the recent quarter in historical context.
Since the Ukraine conflict began, the Japanese Yen has underperformed all major currencies. See the latest analysis on the drivers.
We believe the possibility of a recession in the US over the coming two to three years is increasing. As such, we take a strong signal from the recent (albeit brief) yield curve inversion and in this note, address how our analysis led to this conclusion.
The growth forecast downgrade was prompted by a slew of weakening macro indicators in March -- which we elaborate on in the pages of this note.
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve increased policy rates by 25 bps, the first hike since 2018. We go into further detail on the highlights.
As the Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to raise interest rates for the first time post-Covid following its March 15-16 meetings, we look some important questions.
The ECB delivered a hawkish surprise, during its March 10th policy meeting, despite the Ukraine conflict. We review the implications for macro & markets outlook.
China sets an ambitious growth target for 2022, and policymakers may need to make some compromises.
The Russia-Ukraine war sadly continues. This constitutes the most serious security crisis in Europe in decades and the full repercussions will likely be immense on the global geopolitical landscape.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has begun. This constitutes the most serious security crisis in Europe for decades. Markets are responding.
Following a recent note on market corrections, this note focuses on the historical rebounds of the S&P 500 from those pullbacks.
Since the market has been flirting with a market correction in recent days with a >10% decline from the recent peak. We provide a few quick stats to put the decline in a historical context.