To ensure an optimal and secure experience, please upgrade to the latest version of your browser.
The emerging market corporate bond (EMCD) market looks to start the New Year in better shape than many asset classes, according to Insight Investment. Colm McDonagh, head of emerging market debt (EMD) at the group, anticipates attractive returns for EMCD in 2021; some 4.5% of which he believes will come from income or carry alone.
While McDonagh expects US Treasuries to face increased headwinds in 2021, he notes it is difficult to fully take into account the economic implications of the Covid-19 vaccine roll out.
While the pandemic affected the EMD universe as much as it did every asset class, and at a greater level than the 2008 crisis, McDonagh also notes the shock was less for emerging than developed markets. He attributes this to lower debt levels in many emerging markets ahead of the crisis.
China is a key component of the recovery in EMD and EMCD, he says, noting the economy is of greater significance and influence on emerging markets than the US. “Some 65% of the increase in Chinese imports since May 2020 have come from emerging markets,” he cites, pointing out this highlights the shift in dependencies in the region.
In addition, he says: “typically a crisis of growth in emerging markets involves a balance of payments issue – not so this time. While there has been a significant weakening in exchange rates since the crisis began, it is not the reason for a decline in import demands.” This is why McDonagh and the Insight team believe companies across such regions are well situated to likely rebound from the crisis. It is also why defaults in the EMCD universe may be far less than in other crisis and in comparison to the US, he adds.
Rodica Glavan, head of emerging market corporate debt at Insight, forecasts defaults in EMCD to stay below 4% for 2020 – almost half what the US high yield market is expected to reach by year end. By comparison, according to Insight’s figures, EMCD defaults reached 5.1% during the difficult 2015-16 period and 10.5% in the 2009 crisis.1
Glavan points out net leverage across emerging markets is lower than developed markets for both high yield and investment grade-rated companies (See Figure 1). The lower debt levels of companies, the refinancing activity last year among EM corporates when conditions were more favourable and the supportive measures being taken by governments around the world are all positives for the asset class for the year ahead, she says. “Encouragingly, the EM corporate recovery rate has been at 43% year-to-date, relatively high both by historical standards and compared to US HY, where it is around record lows of around 15%,” she adds citing stats from JP Morgan as of August 2020.
This is not to say the potential for returns and default risk is homogenous across the asset class. There are regions she sees as problematic, such as Turkey, South Africa and Brazil. The wide discrepancies in fiscal deficits will be a key determent of returns in EM over the few years, McDonagh adds.
Positive influences in 2021
Glavan notes that with the US election over, the outcome may offer further positives for EMCD in 2021. Positively influencing prices in the year ahead is a more predictable trade policy from the new US administration, she states. While Glavan doesn’t believe Joe Biden will reverse some of the protectionist policies already in place, he is likely to adopt a more cooperative approach across emerging market governments, especially China. US Treasury yields are also likely to stabilize on expectations of less fiscal expansion, resulting from the divided US Congress, she says. The EMD team at Insight also believes the US dollar is also likely to be weaker in the year ahead on the back of less need for the safe haven currency in the face of increased positive news regarding vaccines as well as increased stimulus to counterbalance the expected lower fiscal stimulus.
1Source: Insight as of November 2020.
Carry: The cost or benefit of owning an asset.
Leverage: The amount of debt used by a company to finance its assets.
All investments involve some level of risk, including loss of principal. Certain investments have specific or unique risks.
Recent market risks include pandemic risks related to COVID-19. The effects of COVID-19 have contributed to increased volatility in global markets and will likely affect certain countries, companies, industries and market sectors more dramatically than others.
Insight Investment advisory services in North America are provided through two different investment advisers registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), using the brand Insight Investment: Insight North America LLC (INA) and Insight Investment International Limited (IIIL). The North American investment advisers are associated with other global investment managers that also (individually and collectively) use the corporate brand Insight Investment and may be referred to as “Insight” or “Insight Investment.”
BNY Mellon Investment Management is one of the world’s leading investment management organizations and one of the top U.S. wealth managers, encompassing BNY Mellon’s affiliated investment management firms, wealth management organization and global distribution companies. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation and may also be used as a generic term to reference the Corporation as a whole or its various subsidiaries generally.
Views expressed are those of the manager stated and do not reflect views of other managers or the firm overall. Views are current as of the date of this publication and subject to change. This information contains projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations, and is only current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events or expectations will be achieved, and actual results may be significantly different from that shown here. The information is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons.
Forecasts, estimates and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Please consult a legal, tax or financial professional in order to determine whether an investment product or service is appropriate for a particular situation. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. BNY Mellon Securities Corporation is a subsidiary of BNY Mellon. © 2020 BNY Mellon Securities Corporation, distributor, 240 Greenwich St, New York, NY 10286.