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Economies have been slowing worldwide and the slowdown is centered on global manufacturing and trade. Where does all this leave investors?

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Monthly Market Roundup

July 2019

Dovish Central Banks Supporting Markets

  • Global equities gained in June due to a synchronized dovish stance from major central banks; a weaker U.S. dollar; and a temporary trade truce between the U.S. and China.
  • The S&P 500 had its best first half performance in 22 years.
  • The 10-year Treasury has declined YTD and, in June, reached its lowest level since November 2016.
  • Trade uncertainty, tariffs, and lower domestic demand are contributing to the weakening economic backdrop.
  • Going forward, the size and effectiveness of China's next round of stimulus and the continued strength of the U.S. consumer will be key to stabilizing growth.
  • Markets are increasingly dependent on an expectation of global dovish central bank policy to provide the next leg upward.
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June 2019

Global equities suffered their worst May in seven years as higher trade tensions and weaker economic data contributed to risk-off sentiment.

Latest Edition: Risk-off environment
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May 2019

As concerns over opposing signals from bond and equity markets persist, the health of the U.S. consumer and effectiveness of Chinese stimulus remain key to further improvement in market sentiment.

Latest Edition: Conflicted bond and equity markets
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Monthly Market Roundup - May 2019

 

Monthly Market Roundup - April 2019

 

Monthly Market Roundup - June 2019

Points of View

What’s priced into markets?

U.S. equities: Why we still expect a positive calendar year…

While longer-term valuation measures show historically elevated valuations and thus imply lower future returns, lower real discount rates means equilibrium equity valuations are higher than in the past.

 

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U.S. Treasuries: Why we think recession fears are unjustified

Given dramatic moves in risk markets, we provide a brief update of what we think markets are currently pricing in along with implications for investing.

 

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Global Investment Strategy Group

Meet the minds behind the research.

Shamik Dhar

Chief Economist

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Alicia Levine, PhD

Chief Strategist

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Liz Young, CFA

Director of Market Strategy

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Lale Akoner

Market Strategist

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Bryan Besecker, CFA, CAIA

Market Strategist

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MARK-64441-2019-06-07