Market Insights

Now Featuring

Vantage Point:
Negative Charge

The global slowdown has intensified since our last edition and downside risks are rising. Where does all this leave investors?

Download full report

Weekly Market Roundup

November 18, 2019

Start your week off right with our market snapshot and data visualization from the Global Economics and Investment Analysis Group.

WHAT HAPPENED


  • Global stocks were up +0.4% in the latest week on continued expectations of a U.S.-China trade deal with rollback of tariffs.
  • Emerging markets (-1.5%) underperformed developed markets (+0.7%) on continued weak global economic data and Hong Kong protests.
  • U.S. large caps (+0.9%) had their sixth consecutive weekly gain (longest streak in two years) and outperformed small caps (-0.1%).
  • Europe overall was unchanged; France led the region’s gains (+0.8%).
  • U.S. corporate credit spreads (U.S. HY +10 bp; U.S. IG +1 bp) widened.
  • U.S. Treasuries gained, driving yields lower (U.S. 10-year closed the week at 1.83%; 2-year yield at 1.61%).
  • The U.S. dollar index lost (-0.4%) against other major currencies.
  • U.S. October headline CPI of +0.4% m/m beat consensus and the +1.8% y/y rate was higher than September's report of +1.7%.
  • U.S. October retail sales went up +0.3% (+3.1% y/y), beating expectations and better than September’s -0.3%. Autos came stronger than expected.
  • China activity data came weaker than expected: Industrial production rose +4.7% y/y compared to +5.8% in prior month. Fixed asset investment expanded +5.2% y/y YTD (record-low reading) vs prior +5.4%.

WHAT'S AHEAD


  • U.S. FOMC Minutes (Wednesday)
  • Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Thursday)
  • U.S. Leading Indicators (Thursday)
  • Japan CPI (Thursday)
  • Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Friday)
  • U.S. Markit Composite PMI (Friday)
VIEW VISUALIZATION

Monthly Market Roundup

November 2019

Positive Sentiment Supports Risk Assets

  • Increased risk appetite in October supported equities as global stocks gained 2.8%, the best month since June.
  • Global central bank easing, a softer dollar, and anticipation of a “phase one” skinny trade deal between the US and China supported sentiment.
  • While global growth momentum continues to weaken, there are some signs of stabilization.
  • The outperformance of value, Europe, Japan, banks, US small caps, US yield curve steepening, and higher sovereign bond yields also highlights markets pricing in a cyclical bottom.
Find out more

Monthly Market Roundup Podcast
Presented by Lale Akoner,
Market Strategist

October 2019

Slowing growth is widespread and risks remain to the downside.

Slowing Growth, Risks Remain
DOWNLOAD THE ROUNDUP

Monthly Market Roundup Podcast
Presented by Lale Akoner, Market Strategist

September 2019

Risk-off sentiment dominated in August as tit-for-tat tariffs were imposed by the U.S. and China, China devalued its currency, and the U.S. 2s10s yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007.

Trade Tensions Drive Risk-off Sentiment
DOWNLOAD THE ROUNDUP

Monthly Market Roundup Podcast
Presented by Lale Akoner, Market Strategist

Monthly Market Roundup - November 2019

 

Monthly Market Roundup - October 2019

 

Monthly Market Roundup - September 2019

 

Points of View

What’s priced into markets?

Government Bonds: Why we expect yields to edge higher…

Our forecasts for yields still imply a market that is too pessimistic and lowered its estimates too far. Hence, we see a higher probability of an upward drift in yields as growth stabilizes in 2020.

 

Read More

U.S. Treasuries: Why we think recession fears are unjustified

Given dramatic moves in risk markets, we provide a brief update of what we think markets are currently pricing in along with implications for investing.

 

Read More

Global Economics and Investment Analysis Group

Meet the minds behind the research.

Shamik Dhar

Chief Economist

FIND OUT MORE

Alicia Levine, PhD

Chief Strategist

FIND OUT MORE

Liz Young, CFA

Director of Market Strategy

FIND OUT MORE

Lale Akoner

Market Strategist

FIND OUT MORE

Bryan Besecker, CFA, CAIA

Market Strategist

FIND OUT MORE

MARK-76191-2019-09-05