Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

Market Insights

Now Available

Vantage Point:
Recession fatigue

Welcome to another edition of Vantage Point, the quarterly economic and markets outlook from the Global Economics and Investment Analysis (GEIA) team.

Featured Insights

Will Treasury yields get guidance from Powell?

Since the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) July minutes release, US Treasury yields have been rising.

Read More

When to extend?

The time to consider extending fixed income duration is now thanks to attractive income returns, potential for price...

Read More

Two sides of the same coin: CPI and PCE

The fight against inflation is still well underway in 2023 after a historically aggressive year of quantitative...

Read More

Macro Update on Market Volatility

Silicon Valley Bank collapse, explained.

Read More

Learning from earnings

Q4 earnings faced a low bar and largely underwhelmed, despite modestly beating expectations. The biggest takeaway is...

Read More

Does the February USD rebound have legs?

Declining US inflation and positive growth surprises out of the euro area and China contributed to US dollar weakness...

Read More

Value's run is not done

Investors should resist assuming that value’s recent performance was a one-off fluke and that the 2020s will be a...

Read More

Does the fall in M2 have implications for prices?

Over a longer period, the relationship between M2, its velocity and inflation has been unstable.

Read More

Japan Macro Update: Yield Curve Control Recalibration Necessary for Policy Sustainability

The Bank of Japan’s experiment with Yield Curve Control and asset purchases is set to wind down. The current framework...

Read More

China in 2023: Anatomy of a Messy

After an annus horribilis, we expect China’s economy to experience a messy but much needed growth recovery by mid-2023...

Read More

The pain in the equity market is likely not over

The market expects the inflation problem to be sorted out by a shallow recession and loosening monetary policy in 2023....

Read More


Monthly Market Roundup


August 2023

July Monthly Market Roundup

  • Developed market central bank stances have remained hawkish in July, though investors perceive the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) to be closer to peak policy stance for the cycle than the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
  • In concert with strong equity performance, both US investment grade and high yield credit spreads to US Treasuries narrowed on the month
  • Investors remain focused on growth in China and the Bank of Japan developments and implication for fixed income and foreign exchange flows globally.
  • Meanwhile, the macroeconomic backdrop in the euro area remains challenging.
Find out more

Points of View

Points of View: Economic outlook, central bank stances diverge

Divergent inflation and growth dynamics have and will continue to position major central banks along contrasting...

Read More

Re-assessing the China Rebound

China’s April monthly activity fell short of expectations across the board with economy wide prices eased further, with...

Read More

US Technical Default: Low Chance, High Impact

At this stage, investors deem the risk of the debt ceiling not being raised in time to be low, but the consequences of...

Read More

De-dollarization is Not Imminent, But the Debate Will Linger

Every few years, market doubts about the U.S.’ macro excesses and foreign policy follies crop up and raises the specter...

Read More

Japan: Further tweaks to YCC

Japan's incipient wage-price spiral to spur further tweaks to yield curve control policy.

Read More

What’s the Fed to do?

Recent stresses in the global financial systems, albeit generally confined to its weakest links, carry an increased...

Read More

US inflation momentum slows in October

US October Consumer Price Index (CPI) was weaker than expected in both headline and core. The deceleration in core...

Read More

Japan: Yen in a Free Fall, but a Policy Pivot is Nearing

Describes how global policy divergence and other macro-drivers of large-scale Yen depreciation are still intact, but...

Read More

Elevated Sino-US Tension over Taiwan to Accelerate Economic De-Coupling

The Taiwan related tension may not go away quickly with the upcoming quinquennial transition in China and US mid-term...

Read More

Food Price Shocks: Macro and Investment Implications

This note details our latest analysis of prolonged food price shocks and their impact on macro and investments.

Read More

Bear Markets: More Pain, Then Gain

The history of bear markets makes for gloomy reading. However, this brief note focuses on what we might expect once the...

Read More

Don’t Blame China for Inflation Damage in the U.S.

The state of global supply chains are widely seen as heavily influenced by developments in China. While it is true that...

Read More

A Deep Dive into QT

In this third note of three, we review the arguments behind these opposing views in the previous two, in the hope to...

Read More

Could QT lead to a steeper yield curve?

In the first note in a series of three on QT we argued that QT will most likely contribute to a flattening of the yield...

Read More

The Impact of QT on Financial Markets

We have written extensively on our expectations for future rate hikes and the peak in US rates. In this paper, the...

Read More

Yield Curve Inversion... This Time Is Not Different

We believe the possibility of a recession in the US over the coming two to three years is increasing. As such, we take...

Read More

Global Economics and Investment Analysis Group

Meet the minds behind the research.

Shamik Dhar

Chief Economist


Aninda Mitra

Head of Asia Macro & Investment Strategy


Sebastian Vismara

Senior Financial Economist


Jake Jolly, CFA

Head of Investment Analysis


Sonia Meskin

Head of U.S. Macro