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Pivotal Moment

Welcome to another edition of Vantage Point, the quarterly economic and markets outlook from the Global Economics and Investment Analysis (GEIA) team.

Featured Insights



A quarterly compilation of BNY Mellon perspectives derived from our unique vantage point at the intersection of markets.

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AI Equity Impact: Already Irrational?

The market may surge in the next few years as AI benefits become clearer and the market prices more of the impact.

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Inflation pressures may grow from Red Sea actions

Chronically constricted Red Sea shipping lanes could raise the cost of Europe-Mid-East-Asia trade and slow the...

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Will Treasury yields get guidance from Powell?

Since the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) July minutes release, US Treasury yields have been rising.

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Macro Update on Market Volatility

Silicon Valley Bank collapse, explained.

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Monthly Market Roundup


May 2024

April Market Roundup

  • Global equities pulled back (-3.3%), marking the first monthly drop since last October. Developed markets led the move lower (-3.7%) with US large caps down (-4.4%) but faring better than US small caps (-7.0%).
  • After leading global peers year-to-date, Japan equity also declined (-4.9%). Emerging market equity bucked the trend and gained modestly overall (+0.5%) thanks to a jump in China equity (+6.6%).
  • Key benchmark rates continued to backup with the 10-year US Treasury yield ending the month at 4.68% (just off the 2024 high).
  • Tracking the macroeconomic developments, US GDP growth came in weaker than expected at a 1.6% annualized rate, making it the slowest quarterly growth in nearly two years. However, the headline figure hid more positive details. Personal consumption increased by a still firm 2.5%, while business and residential investment both expanded strongly.
  • Across the pond, the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting delivered no surprises with policy rates left unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting since the last hike in September
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Points of View


Points of View: On the cusp of a productivity boom?

The promise of AI (and other reasons for optimism)

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Points of View: Economic outlook, central bank stances diverge

Divergent inflation and growth dynamics have and will continue to position major central banks along contrasting...

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A Deep Dive into QT

In this third note of three, we review the arguments behind these opposing views in the previous two, in the hope to...

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Could QT lead to a steeper yield curve?

In the first note in a series of three on QT we argued that QT will most likely contribute to a flattening of the yield...

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The Impact of QT on Financial Markets

We have written extensively on our expectations for future rate hikes and the peak in US rates. In this paper, the...

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Yield Curve Inversion... This Time Is Not Different

We believe the possibility of a recession in the US over the coming two to three years is increasing. As such, we take...

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Global Economics and Investment Analysis Group

Meet the minds behind the research.

Shamik Dhar

Chief Economist


Aninda Mitra

Head of Asia Macro & Investment Strategy


Sebastian Vismara

Senior Financial Economist


Jake Jolly, CFA

Head of Investment Analysis


Matt Forester

Head of Dynamic Portfolio Management

Keith Collier, CFA

Head of Asset Allocation Research

Bethany Woodcock

Emerging Leaders Program Rotational Analyst

Ryan Milgrim, CFA

Senior Research Analyst