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VANTAGE POINT:
Pivotal Moment

Welcome to another edition of Vantage Point, the quarterly economic and markets outlook from the Global Economics and Investment Analysis (GEIA) team.

Featured Insights

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THE ALTA REPORT

A quarterly compilation of BNY Mellon perspectives derived from our unique vantage point at the intersection of markets.

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AI Equity Impact: Already Irrational?

The market may surge in the next few years as AI benefits become clearer and the market prices more of the impact.

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Inflation pressures may grow from Red Sea actions

Chronically constricted Red Sea shipping lanes could raise the cost of Europe-Mid-East-Asia trade and slow the...

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Will Treasury yields get guidance from Powell?

Since the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) July minutes release, US Treasury yields have been rising.

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Macro Update on Market Volatility

Silicon Valley Bank collapse, explained.
 
 

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Monthly Market Roundup

 

May 2024

April Market Roundup

  • Global equities pulled back (-3.3%), marking the first monthly drop since last October. Developed markets led the move lower (-3.7%) with US large caps down (-4.4%) but faring better than US small caps (-7.0%).
  • After leading global peers year-to-date, Japan equity also declined (-4.9%). Emerging market equity bucked the trend and gained modestly overall (+0.5%) thanks to a jump in China equity (+6.6%).
  • Key benchmark rates continued to backup with the 10-year US Treasury yield ending the month at 4.68% (just off the 2024 high).
  • Tracking the macroeconomic developments, US GDP growth came in weaker than expected at a 1.6% annualized rate, making it the slowest quarterly growth in nearly two years. However, the headline figure hid more positive details. Personal consumption increased by a still firm 2.5%, while business and residential investment both expanded strongly.
  • Across the pond, the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting delivered no surprises with policy rates left unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting since the last hike in September
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Points of View

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Points of View: On the cusp of a productivity boom?

The promise of AI (and other reasons for optimism)

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Points of View: Economic outlook, central bank stances diverge

Divergent inflation and growth dynamics have and will continue to position major central banks along contrasting...

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A Deep Dive into QT

In this third note of three, we review the arguments behind these opposing views in the previous two, in the hope to...

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Could QT lead to a steeper yield curve?

In the first note in a series of three on QT we argued that QT will most likely contribute to a flattening of the yield...

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The Impact of QT on Financial Markets

We have written extensively on our expectations for future rate hikes and the peak in US rates. In this paper, the...

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Yield Curve Inversion... This Time Is Not Different

We believe the possibility of a recession in the US over the coming two to three years is increasing. As such, we take...

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Global Economics and Investment Analysis Group

Meet the minds behind the research.

Shamik Dhar

Chief Economist

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Aninda Mitra

Head of Asia Macro & Investment Strategy

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Sebastian Vismara

Senior Financial Economist

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Jake Jolly, CFA

Head of Investment Analysis

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Matt Forester

Head of Dynamic Portfolio Management

Keith Collier, CFA

Head of Asset Allocation Research

Bethany Woodcock

Emerging Leaders Program Rotational Analyst

Ryan Milgrim, CFA

Senior Research Analyst

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