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Vantage Point: Defensive playbook

Welcome to another edition of Vantage Point. The world economy is in a precarious situation. There are a number of pressing issues but three stand out: the ongoing energy crisis, high core inflation, and the situation in China. Each affects the major economic regions differently. But together warrant a very defensive approach to investing.

Featured Insights


    Monthly Market Roundup

September 2022

Summer Stumble


  • Global markets bounced in July and financial conditions eased as real rates in developed markets, most notably the US, declined on lower growth expectations and perception of a peak in Fed policy tightening.
  • Market participants perceived the July FOMC meeting as more dovish than anticipated, and expectations for a slower pace of hikes appear to have firmed.
  • US real rates, a key driver of equity valuations and broader financial conditions, declined notably, with the 10-year TIPS yield dropping as low as 0.14% from the high of 0.70% in mid-June.
  • In sympathy with the US Treasuries, the long end of the curve moved lower across major developed markets.
  • MSCI EAFE rose by 5.0%, while the S&P 500 surged by 9.2%. US companies delivered better than-expected earnings results and guidance, on net, against muted expectations from analysts for the 2Q22 earnings season.
  • Emerging markets lost ground as the USD gained by 1.2% against major FX, and Chinese markets dipped by 9.4%. Activity in China has been relatively weak, with the real estate sector, a major input into Chinese consumer sentiment, still struggling and growth data in July coming in weaker than expected. Expectations for a further slowdown in Chinese growth in 2H22 are becoming entrenched.
  • Oil prices continued to decline and are now down roughly 25% since June. Expectations for lower global growth, China’s zero-Covid policy and real estate sector woes, and a recovery in Russian production, among other factors, have contributed to oil price declines.


Global Economics and Investment Analysis Group

Meet the minds behind the research.

Shamik Dhar

Chief Economist


Aninda Mitra

Vice-President and the Head


Lale Akoner

Market Strategist


Vismara Sebastian

Financial Economist


Jake Jolly, CFA, CFA

Head of Investment Analysis