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Vantage Point: 2020 Vision

The second half of 2019 saw fears about the 2020 outlook peak but then start to stabilize again towards the end of the year. Where does this leave investors?

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Weekly Market Roundup

January 27, 2020

Start your week off right with our market snapshot from the Global Economics and Investment Analysis Group.

WHAT HAPPENED


  • Global stocks declined -1.0% in the latest week (1.5% YTD) as concerns over the coronavirus flu in China escalated and the death toll and number of those infected increased rapidly.
  • Emerging markets declined -2.4% and suffered the most (0.5% YTD) followed by developed markets who lost -0.8% (1.6% YTD).
  • In the US, the S&P 500 dipped -1.0% (2.1% YTD), the NASDAQ lost -0.8% (3.8% YTD), and the Russell 2000 declined -2.2% (-0.3% YTD).
  • Commodities suffered -3.1% from the heightened risk aversion led by a -7.6% drop in oil.
  • Key sovereign interest rates across advanced economies retreated led by a -15 bp and -14 bp fall in the US 10-and-30-year Treasury.
  • The majors dollar index advanced 0.3% and is 1.5% YTD.
  • The US Markit manufacturing PMI missed estimates in January and fell for the second month in a row to 51.7 after reaching 52.6 in November, the highest since April. The services PMI surpassed expectations and gained 0.5 to 53.2, the strongest since March. We expect the manufacturing PMI to reverse course and shift higher in line with services.
  • While US leading economic indicators expanded only 0.1% y/y in December, the rate of deceleration is showing signs of bottoming.
  • US existing home sales jumped to 5.54 million (saar) in December and is the strongest in nearly two years. Housing continues to benefit from a healthy consumer, strong labor market, and easy financial conditions.
  • The UK unemployment rate remained at 3.8% where it has hovered over the last 12-months. The Markit manufacturing PMI gained to 49.8 in January which is the highest since April but still in contraction territory. The services PMI accelerated sharply to 52.9 which is the best in over a year.
  • The Eurozone consumer confidence index held steady at -8.1 in January. While this is the lowest since early 2017, we expect confidence to stabilize and gain modestly in 2020.
  • Germany’s ZEW survey of growth expectations has risen sharply to the highest level since mid-2015 suggesting that the worst of the growth slowdown has passed.
  • Since falling to a multi-year low in September, the Eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI has continued to top estimates and improved to 47.8 in January which is the highest since April.

WHAT'S AHEAD


  • US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Tuesday)
  • US Fed Meeting (Wednesday)
  • US 4Q GDP Revision (Thursday)
  • China PMIs (Thursday)
  • US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Inflation (Thursday)
  • Eurozone 4Q GDP Revision (Friday)
  • Eurozone Inflation (Friday)
  • US UMichigan Consumer Sentiment (Friday)
VIEW SNAPSHOT

Monthly Market Roundup

January 2020

Strong Finish to 2019

  • Global stocks gained another 3.6% in December, finishing the year up 27.3% for the best annual return since 2009 as markets signaled optimism over the 2020 outlook.
  • Further signs of a stabilization in global growth, expectations for improvement in 2020, easier financial conditions, and reduced trade tensions helped boost risk appetite and drive safe haven government bond yields higher.
  • Limited inflation will linger throughout 2020 and keep central banks on hold as the bar has been set higher for further stimulus.
  • Both a Brexit and US-China trade deal have more clarity but actual policies remain outstanding.
Find out more

Monthly Market Roundup Podcast
Presented by Lale Akoner,
Market Strategist

December 2019

Global stocks had the best November performance since 2009, on increased investor risk appetite pricing in a rebound of the global economy and perception of decreased geopolitical risk.

Looking Better
DOWNLOAD THE ROUNDUP

Monthly Market Roundup Podcast
Presented by Lale Akoner, Market Strategist

November 2019

Increased risk appetite in October supported equities as global stocks gained 2.8%, the best month since June.

Positive Sentiment Supports Risk Assets
DOWNLOAD THE ROUNDUP

Monthly Market Roundup Podcast
Presented by Lale Akoner, Market Strategist

Monthly Market Roundup - January 2020

 

Monthly Market Roundup - December 2019

 

Monthly Market Roundup - November 2019

 

Points of View

What’s priced into markets?

Government Bonds: Why we expect yields to edge higher…

Our forecasts for yields still imply a market that is too pessimistic and lowered its estimates too far. Hence, we see a higher probability of an upward drift in yields as growth stabilizes in 2020.

 

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U.S. Treasuries: Why we think recession fears are unjustified

Given dramatic moves in risk markets, we provide a brief update of what we think markets are currently pricing in along with implications for investing.

 

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Global Economics and Investment Analysis Group

Meet the minds behind the research.

Shamik Dhar

Chief Economist

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Alicia Levine, PhD

Chief Strategist

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Liz Young, CFA

Director of Market Strategy

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Lale Akoner

Market Strategist

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Bryan Besecker, CFA, CAIA

Market Strategist

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