Since the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) July minutes release, US Treasury yields have been rising.
The time to consider extending fixed income duration is now thanks to attractive income returns, potential for price...
The fight against inflation is still well underway in 2023 after a historically aggressive year of quantitative...
Q4 earnings faced a low bar and largely underwhelmed, despite modestly beating expectations. The biggest takeaway is...
Declining US inflation and positive growth surprises out of the euro area and China contributed to US dollar weakness...
Investors should resist assuming that value’s recent performance was a one-off fluke and that the 2020s will be a...
Over a longer period, the relationship between M2, its velocity and inflation has been unstable.
The Bank of Japan’s experiment with Yield Curve Control and asset purchases is set to wind down. The current framework...
After an annus horribilis, we expect China’s economy to experience a messy but much needed growth recovery by mid-2023...
The market expects the inflation problem to be sorted out by a shallow recession and loosening monetary policy in 2023....
August 2023
Divergent inflation and growth dynamics have and will continue to position major central banks along contrasting...
China’s April monthly activity fell short of expectations across the board with economy wide prices eased further, with...
At this stage, investors deem the risk of the debt ceiling not being raised in time to be low, but the consequences of...
Every few years, market doubts about the U.S.’ macro excesses and foreign policy follies crop up and raises the specter...
Japan's incipient wage-price spiral to spur further tweaks to yield curve control policy.
Recent stresses in the global financial systems, albeit generally confined to its weakest links, carry an increased...
US October Consumer Price Index (CPI) was weaker than expected in both headline and core. The deceleration in core...
Describes how global policy divergence and other macro-drivers of large-scale Yen depreciation are still intact, but...
The Taiwan related tension may not go away quickly with the upcoming quinquennial transition in China and US mid-term...
This note details our latest analysis of prolonged food price shocks and their impact on macro and investments.
The history of bear markets makes for gloomy reading. However, this brief note focuses on what we might expect once the...
The state of global supply chains are widely seen as heavily influenced by developments in China. While it is true that...
In this third note of three, we review the arguments behind these opposing views in the previous two, in the hope to...
In the first note in a series of three on QT we argued that QT will most likely contribute to a flattening of the yield...
We have written extensively on our expectations for future rate hikes and the peak in US rates. In this paper, the...
We believe the possibility of a recession in the US over the coming two to three years is increasing. As such, we take...
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MARK-179764-2021-03-26