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Economies have been slowing worldwide and the slowdown is centered on global manufacturing and trade. Where does all this leave investors?

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Monthly Market Roundup

August 2019

Slowing Growth vs. Easy Central Banks

  • Global stocks edged slightly higher in July and bond yields were flat to lower as central banks turned increasingly dovish
  • U.S. growth continues to outperform the rest of world due to a resilient consumer while global manufacturing continues to weaken particularly in the Eurozone
  • China’s slowdown moderated slightly and additional improvement will hinge on greater stimulus
  • Slowing global growth and disinflation are increasing expectations for further central bank easing. However, market reliance on a global easing cycle may be dashed if central bank actions fall short or if further easy monetary policy cannot provide the fuel to jump start global growth
  • Trade uncertainty escalated as the U.S. announced it will impose an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese goods starting September 1
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July 2019

Global equities gained in June due to a synchronized dovish stance from major central banks; a weaker U.S. dollar; and a temporary trade truce between the U.S. and China.

Latest Edition: Dovish Central Banks Supporting Markets
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June 2019

Global equities suffered their worst May in seven years as higher trade tensions and weaker economic data contributed to risk-off sentiment.

Latest Edition: Risk-off environment
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Monthly Market Roundup - May 2019

 

Monthly Market Roundup - April 2019

 

Monthly Market Roundup - June 2019

Points of View

What’s priced into markets?

U.S. equities: Why we still expect a positive calendar year…

While longer-term valuation measures show historically elevated valuations and thus imply lower future returns, lower real discount rates means equilibrium equity valuations are higher than in the past.

 

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U.S. Treasuries: Why we think recession fears are unjustified

Given dramatic moves in risk markets, we provide a brief update of what we think markets are currently pricing in along with implications for investing.

 

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Global Investment Strategy Group

Meet the minds behind the research.

Shamik Dhar

Chief Economist

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Alicia Levine, PhD

Chief Strategist

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Liz Young, CFA

Director of Market Strategy

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Lale Akoner

Market Strategist

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Bryan Besecker, CFA, CAIA

Market Strategist

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